Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 17.402279 20.001872 23.050128 26.939706 31.847410 37.942769 4.626655e+01
2025-02-23 14.085922 17.184679 21.163167 26.806475 34.894496 46.581734 6.586453e+01
2025-03-02 12.211360 15.464643 19.892085 26.638365 37.235018 54.454456 8.786430e+01
2025-03-09 11.044093 14.405644 19.200184 26.956720 40.159826 64.099892 1.189321e+02
2025-03-16 9.852083 13.110991 17.911668 26.014822 40.648745 69.540315 1.456787e+02
2025-03-23 9.099021 12.343368 17.274348 25.955163 42.612101 78.647735 1.905340e+02
2025-03-30 8.245657 11.325163 16.101947 24.749912 42.045938 81.986899 2.227514e+02
2025-04-06 7.482916 10.372756 14.924284 23.341434 40.725193 83.019387 2.490956e+02
2025-04-13 6.886213 9.628791 14.011215 22.282212 39.906793 85.088253 2.841510e+02
2025-04-20 7.007103 10.026984 15.043750 25.056624 48.374564 118.315338 5.767193e+02
2025-04-27 6.813038 9.890811 15.130653 25.974354 52.784612 142.896933 9.838903e+02
2025-05-04 6.356928 9.281594 14.309778 24.869237 51.632574 146.135116 1.198826e+03
2025-05-11 6.167804 9.127757 14.336263 25.667434 56.196128 178.635578 2.551626e+03
2025-05-18 5.880288 8.783639 13.975764 25.556760 58.176564 202.538892 5.181278e+03
2025-05-25 5.616310 8.460085 13.620814 25.399124 59.992476 228.807410 1.336192e+04
2025-06-01 5.426043 8.252316 13.468516 25.696386 63.451763 272.014618 1.176617e+05
2025-06-08 5.131462 7.838076 12.871665 24.816682 62.568539 284.171846 2.241590e+06
2025-06-15 4.943063 7.604600 12.617617 24.760931 64.699818 326.055440 NaN
2025-06-22 4.667188 7.195937 11.977445 23.633820 62.453245 325.644391 NaN
2025-06-29 4.391661 6.775791 11.289370 22.314653 59.177893 311.961338 NaN
2025-07-06 4.163748 6.434173 10.744448 21.321130 57.004693 308.180500 NaN
2025-07-13 4.270225 6.717018 11.512530 23.920794 70.578956 535.309692 NaN
2025-07-20 4.216752 6.694483 11.632572 24.778865 77.319639 734.493425 NaN